“There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen." - Lenin
"I remember standing on the Berlin Wall the day it fell and believing, really believing, that the brutal division of a Europe had ended. How wrong I was. How lucky I am. How impotent I feel." - Nick Robinson
Sometimes do you just freeze with horror at what you've just seen or heard?
It’s not that we’ve been cotton wooled from ghastly events since World War 2. I have close family and or friends who fought in the Falklands, Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan. The personal fall out for them and many many others in those countries has been awful.
If that wasn’t enough then the monstrous genocides in Rwanda, Sri Lanka and Myanmar remind us of how much evil mankind is capable of.
But still. Brutal identity conflicts playing on and abusing ethnic, religious and cultural differences within the same country are not an invasion.
And although I’ve lived abroad under apartheid, dictatorships, colonialism and communism, and learnt not to be naive, I did not believe that President Putin’s resentment of the break up of the former USSR would lead him to invade Ukraine.
The shockwaves, particularly in Germany, are intense and Europe will never be quite the same.
Not everyone is shocked, because some don’t know what’s happening. The word 'invasion' is banned in Russia in the context of Ukraine, with a prison sentence of up to 15 years if you use it. With the closure of local independent Dozhd, there is now no more freedom of media in Russia and so many there simply do not know the truth.
If however, as reported, another 3,000 peace demonstrators in Russia were locked up yesterday for peace demos then word is getting around and Putin cannot lock up everyone. Even in a brutal autocracy the people, eventually, decide.
So the first and critical point then is that this conflict is not between Russia and anyone, but an outrageous abuse of power in the name of his country by its own President. In the end the Russians will never forgive him, any more than we will.
So why?
Because Putin has decided it must be so, is the short answer. That - and no-one willing or able to stand up or persuade him otherwise - is all the justification a dictator needs.
Margaret Thatcher wrote that democracies don’t wage war against each other. But because Putin’s Russia is not a democracy, whatever grievances he nurses about the borders of the Russia Federation compared to those of the USSR in the 70s, the expansion of NATO and perceived threats, alongside his own ego, power and legacy have all led him and us to this place.
What will History say?
Historians will pour over whether the role of Ukraine as a buffer between NATO and Russia could have been better explained and guaranteed, and whether the West had enough engagement with Russia at an earlier stage to avoid this conflict. But after doing all that they will decide the blame lies wholly on one man.
Ultimately, as I said in the Commons, if the tragedy of the 20th century was dictators underestimating the resolve of democracies to get our act together in a crisis then it is cruelly ironic that the lesson has to be re-learnt again so soon in this century, at huge human cost.
Historians will also conclude that German dependence on Russian oil and gas may have been a tenable long term strategy in normal times, but has now been written off. Nord Stream 2 will in all likelihood have to be replaced. That is an extraordinary own goal for Russia.
Why does Putin call the Ukrainian government neo Nazi?
Because it's how he justifies the invasion to his own people.
Germans advancing on Ukraine 1941
It is particularly ironic given that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zolenskyy is Jewish, that his grandfather fought (for Russia) against the Nazis when they brutally invaded Ukraine in 1941 and that when the Nazis captured Kyiv they slaughtered c34,000 Jews among many more Russians, Romas and communists.
Of an estimated 3.3 million Russians & Ukrainian soldier prisoners 2 million died before the city’s liberation two years later in 1943. Neo Nazis? They always say of totalitarian regimes that if you’re going to tell a lie tell an absolute whopper. Putin has done just that.
Babyn Yar ravine of Nazi victims
Was Ukraine expecting this?
No. It came as the same terrible shock to many in Ukraine as to us. Our own Foreign Affairs Select Committee were there only a few weeks ago and Ukrainian MPs assured them that this was just Putin bluffing, trying to bully concessions without fighting.
But although unprepared in some ways, the Ukrainian military, with recent additional training and equipment from us, have been better organised, stronger, braver and far more resilient than Putin or any of us could have imagined. The invasion of Crimea was one thing: the heart of Ukraine quite another. This is, without doubt, their Finest Hour.
Russian column is blocked from advancing
And it could not happen without the extraordinary support of so many volunteers from civilian lives, faced with the existential threat of the destruction of their country and all they love.
We haven’t been through that for centuries, though we were close to it 82 years ago. "You never know what you can do until you have to do it", my 93 year old father sometimes says. Ukraine has shown us that in JCB loads.
What’s broadly happened in the invasion so far and what will happen next?
The Russian forces have taken much of the south east and part of the east of the country and are closing in on the crucial port town of Odessa, though which Ukraine imports and exports so much. The plan then appears to be to attack the capital Kyiv from several directions at once.
Map showing main areas of attack
Losses on both sides are heavy, and the Russians have been indiscriminately bombing civilian homes and in some cases individuals as they go. The photographs are devastating and the International Criminal Court (ICC) has opened an investigation supported by about 40 countries including us.
It is not clear what plans Putin has for Western Ukraine, close to the Polish and Rumanian borders. It is possible that he wishes to cut the country in half, leaving the Western Ukraine as an independent, vassal nation with its capital in Lviv, as was once the case.
It is not remotely likely that Ukraine’s own government, her neighbours, NATO or most of the UN will accept that - and the message to the world from such a plan would be clear: take what you will when you will, for whatever half baked historical reasons you like; for if you have the might you will prevail, and there is nothing the world can or will do to prevent you. Other countries with historical boundaries' grievances would be emboldened. Which is why ‘Putin must fail’ is right - whether immediately or in the longer term.
But we could make sure Putin fails by engaging NATO forces directly to defend Ukraine and route the Russian forces - why don’t we?
Because that’s what Putin wants. His narrative is Mother Russia against an aggressive NATO: whereas the truth is that Putin is invading Ukraine without any provocation at all by NATO.
The moment any NATO unit intervenes then Putin has his excuse, and who knows what he might do or use next, including nuclear missiles, on any NATO member, such as neighbouring Poland or the Baltic States. That in turn would trigger Article 5 on all NATO countries for ‘collective defence’: and a new European War between nuclear powers. Which is why NATO members are both so united and so frustrated.
What about a No Fly Zone?
The same. Russia would not accept that and it would lead to a a plane or helicopter being shot down: a cause of war. The risk of a much wider war is very high from any direct intervention.
Isn’t the comparison though with the 1938 invasion of the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia by Germany - concede now & he’ll invade somewhere else?
With an irrational dictator it is impossible to tell what might happen next, but Ukraine has not surrendered. She is still fighting. Meanwhile NATO has reminded Putin that we WILL invoke Article 5 if he invades any NATO member and that’s why we (UK) has moved an additional 2,000 troops into Estonia.
So how will we make sure Putin fails?
By squeezing him, his cronies and Russia’s institutions so hard that it is not just bad for him, but all Russian businesses and the whole country - and the game is clearly not worth the candle.
But how fast will the squeeze take effect?
It already is. The Russian rouble is down c40% last week alone: their financial markets are shut: their businesses can’t access our financial markets: flights are cancelled and their aircraft effectively grounded: they’ve been cut out of sports competitions and the nation’s import costs are rising fast. Oligarchs are assets are seized, and Russians increasingly under pressure in every sector.
Putin’s actions are catastrophic for Russia and he has achieved western unity against a common threat. Even arguments between the UK and EU on Northern Ireland are on a back burner, while agreement on increasing GDP spend on defence and greater security co-operation are rushed through.
But will this make Putin pull back?
I doubt it: apart from anything else if the invasion isn’t quite going according to plan he may feel obliged to double up; and since the ICC are already on the case and sanctions intensifying his options are narrowing. I fear things will get worse first.
Is there anything more we can do militarily?
Weapons are being delivered by NATO countries to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Beyond that I do not know, except that we all share intense frustration watching a European democracy being destroyed in this agonising way.
Borodyanka, NW of Kyiv after being bombed
What about China?
China will be extremely unhappy about the invasion of Ukraine, which goes against her often stated view of territorial integrity. It may help reduce the cost of China's energy deals with Russia at least short term: but the new found unity of the West will be less welcome.
Meanwhile we should focus on engagement with China, and avoid any closer Russia/China axis. They are not natural allies and we must not make them so.
TikTok's sanctions on Russia and China's abstention on UN votes are not what a Russian ally would do.
Are we organising humanitarian help?
Yes: on a big scale. The Disaster Emergency Committee (DEC) has launched its Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal and, with matched government funding of £25 million this has now reached almost £100 million already.
The Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal has 13 well known charities - Oxfam, Save the Children, Islamic Relief, ITC, Age International, Tear Fund, Christian Aid etc all working together. They have resource and knowledge of what’s needed on the ground and can move fast. I strongly recommend anyone wanting to help Ukraine to donate to them: https://www.dec.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-humanitarian-appeal
How about help from Gloucester?
Locally there have also been other initiatives by generous individuals in Gloucester and elsewhere wanting to help and make a difference, but short of cash. Many have donated goods and haulage space, and the Ukrainian church is also fund raising.
Community comes together to organise goods for Ukraine
Some volunteer trucks have run into trouble because of lack of knowledge of paperwork for exports to the EU & Poland. Organising donations of the right products to the right end destination needs careful planning and the Gloucester scheme seems to have this in hand through Polish and Ukrainian links.
There are other plans for local donations, although there is also a case for waiting until refugees are here in significant numbers so that eg warm clothes are given once in Gloucester.
And what about visas?
We've been a bit slow to create a new and extended Ukrainian family visa scheme, but it is in place now and anecdotally from colleagues it seems to be working well. But there may be some applicants struggling and if anyone has Ukrainian family members trying to get here, do look at the gov.uk update and contact my office (this e mail) with your name and address (if my constituent) so that we can help.
There is another Community Sponsorship Scheme expected soon: and I will amend this e news on my website to include a link once the details are announced.
Lastly just worthing noting that the EU Schengen Agreement include Ukraine so extending instant access was simple for them, and harder for us (never a part of Schengen).
What about Sanctions? Are we doing less then eg the EU?
We’ve sanctioned 228 Russian organisations. The EU has I think sanctioned almost 400, considerably more, as we should expect: the number of Russian subsidiaries in all 27 countries will of course be greater than those and their parent companies sanctioned in the UK alone. Our total is remarkable for a single country.
What matters most we (US, UK & EU and others like Switzerland and Singapore) are all working closely together so there is consistency. As the biggest financial centre in Europe, our sanctions on SWIFT payments and Russian companies not being able to raise money in London have a big impact on Putin's oligarchs: in other countries the seizure of a handful of big yachts is more eye catching but less systematic. Overall there is a strong decoupling which will hurt us all - but especially Russia.
Is there more to come?
Yes. The Economic Crimes Bill is expected to pass through all stages today (Monday 7th Jan), which gives transparency of ownership, and should enabled more sanctions on assets.
There will be debate about (for example) how quickly ownership of assets has to be declared and whether assets can be sold and moved before the Bill comes into being. My view is that we move as fast as possible, while sticking to the rule of law.
And what are you doing as an individual MP?
Seven specific things:
- As Chair of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD) we had a small office in Kyiv and getting our team to safety on the Ukraine border was an important responsibility for the organisation: that is now secured
- I organised a debate in my name to highlight the work of the WFD and what President Reagan said in 1982 (in our own Parliament) about democracy. He anticipated a battle of ideas, a battle for democratic values, where we would again have to explain and defend our interests. I also wanted to make sure we secured the budget to keep the WFD decently funded. That was achieved.
- To encourage the government to have in place a generous refugee scheme for extended Ukrainian family members. I edited and signed a letter to the PM with about 50 other colleagues on this. That scheme is now in place, and the other scheme needs to be implemented asap too
- To make sure that Gloucester reacted fast to the situation by flying the Ukraine flag and to hold a decent rally for solidarity. In fact neither the Council nor our local Ukrainian community needed any encouragement, and they organised both last weekend, with a rally at which I spoke.
Picture Credit: Mikal Ludlow
5. To join a service at the Ukrainian Church here in Gloucester and to sign the Ukraine Solidarity Book in Parliament, which goes to the Speaker of the Ukraine Parliament.
6. To encourage a special team from the Home Office to help deal with Ukrainian casework: which has been set up in Parliament, with the Team Leader my former caseworker Aisha Pandor. It is great to see Gloucester leading on doing this vital work
7. Being available for help on Ukrainian refugee/visa/immigration issues through this email address.
At the end of the invasion, what does success look like for Putin?
Replacing the current Ukraine government with a new puppet regime with allegiance to Russia, control of the port, airports and Armed Forces, media etc. Sending a signal to the world that Russia’s grievances will be resolved by force.
And failure?
A failure to conquer Ukraine and take Kyiv would be disastrous for Putin. But a failure to keep control of Ukraine after conquering her (and replacing the regime leader) would be almost as bad.
What about for us?
Our economy takes a hit from the fall out of the breaks in global trade: we all assume that. But squeezing Putin and his supporters into realising this was a disastrous move, and eventually reversing it, is more important. The world needs to see us prepared to defend our values and democracy. Divided we must not be.
And Gloucester?
We need to be prepared to welcome Ukrainian refugees and that means identifying homes. Our capacity is stretched after just absorbing several hundred new refugees, including some Afghan families who served the British well, many of whom fill two hotels. I will be working on this with our Councils, charities and GARAS.
In summary..
This is ghastly in the short term, and the period of reconstruction after whatever is over will be long and very painful for Ukraine - and who knows how our children will judge our caution. We will constantly be asking ourselves - could we, should we, do more..without inadvertently making things much worse.
In the long term though the real damage is to Putin: this is the beginning of the end for him, and the damage to Russia and ordinary Russians very tough too.
Meanwhile NATO’s purpose is restated, the world’s Open Societies are coming together and those too are Putin's achievements.
Locally one thing is for sure: this puts almost all our woes in perspective. Those who think this government fascist have discovered what authoritarianism really looks like: those who think the BBC too critical have discovered what the opposite looks like - and those who think democracy clumsy and slow can think again about what decisive decisions by one man leads to.
In every very black cloud we may find a lining not yet silver, but still to cherish. The human spirit demands that. Otherwise we're left where I started: lucky but impotent.
Let me know your thoughts by mail to me [email protected]
Best regards
Despite being invaded President Zelensky addresses the Ukrainian parliament