Today is the day..when we decide our relations with our neighbours
It's gone on a long time: important, frustrating, emotional; and a source of endless argument. It is the Referendum - and many of my constituents are still unsure which way to vote. I break the issues into five: the Big Picture, Money, Security, Sovereignty and Immigration.
The Big Picture. I believe we need as many friends and allies as possible: in the UN Security Council, at the heart of the Commonwealth, the G7 & NATO, in a special relationship with the US, a strategic partnership with China, very close to Ireland - and a member of the EU. We are smaller by losing any of these.
And our history is one of tremors from quakes on the continent. We've often had to intervene and make war to keep the peace, and above all keep the balance of power - preventing dominance by any one country, which is always bad for us. Whether against Louis XIV, Napoleon, Hitler or Russian communism, we've teamed up with a coalition of the willing to stop them - like the Welsh archers, Eugene of Savoy, Blucher and the Polish and Commonwealth airmen. England has never fought alone in Europe.
Money. Almost everyone, including the leading Brexiters, recognise there'll be a hit if we leave, as sterling drops, inflation rises and interest rates and mortgages go up. The markets have already shown what they can do. I worry about how quickly things would recover, how long it would take to replace the 53 Free Trade Agreements the EU already has, and the long term impact of trade duties on e.g. our aerospace exports to Airbus in Toulouse. Short term this would inevitably lead to less tax revenue for the NHS and other public services - and for how long we just don't know.
Security. There is no single global policeman today. We need maximum co-operation against e.g. terrorists, especially with our nearest neighbours. Our security could not be increased by acting more alone, without the European Arrest Warrant, or by having the refugee camps at Calais moved to Dover. Home to GCHQ and the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC), in Gloucestershire we know the value of partnerships and sharing information carefully.
Of course immigration and sovereignty are also argued over. I hear comments like 'I want my country back', 'our infrastructure can't cope' and 'so many of our jobs are taken by foreigners'. Nor can these just be dismissed. We must make our own decisions in our own Parliament: but we can also accept legislation e.g. to protect workers' rights, improve our beaches and water that came from the EU: 14% of our total laws. And when it comes to sovereignty I see no advantage to business in not having a voice at the table on decisions that affect almost half of our exports.
Ultimately, I don't see leaving the EU will solve immigration - are we going to ask weekending French to apply for a visa, or a German engineer visiting his business here to apply for a work permit? No. Or if yes, then increase the cost of leaving as we axe cheap flights to Europe, many jobs at airports and across the travel industry.
In a nutshell if we want free trade then we pay the club sub and accept free movement to work - we just lose any role in decisions. If we don't want free trade then watch out for the hit to jobs and the 75% of tax from business.
If we want the surest prospects of future jobs for our children then let's make the European partnership work, recognising some compromise in all partnerships. And if we're concerned about immigration and pressures on schools etc then yes, push at us MPs to do more - taking out from the stats students who pay for our universities would make sense - but leaving the EU is not a solution to that. Ultimately the complete lack of detail about what the Leave campaign would do is a huge risk, and although safety is not as sexy as risk, this is a risk I wouldn't recommend at all.
